Kasich sets a snare for himself with proposal to phase out Ohio income tax --Brent Larkin

By Brent Larkin

January 24, 2010, 3:00AM

John Kasich is on a roll.

First of all, a poll taken Jan. 12 shows the presumptive Republican nominee for governor with a lead of 7 percentage points over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland.

Secondly, Kasich's choice of State Auditor Mary Taylor as his running mate was a masterstroke.

Because governors get too much credit in good economic times and too much blame in bad ones, Ohio's moribund economy is a huge problem for Strickland -- especially among independents. So, too, is his support for the health care bill pending in Congress.

On balance, Stickland's record as governor is suspect. On higher education, he's been a great governor. On everything else, the record is pretty thin. And in vote-rich Greater Cleveland, it's virtually nonexistent.

That's why the election now seems to be Kasich's to lose. But make no mistake, Kasich is capable of doing just that.

No one disputes that high taxes are a drag on Ohio job growth. So a well-reasoned plan by Kasich to cut the size of government and lower the state's income tax, when coupled with the anti-incumbent political climate, might just finish Strickland.

But instead of a winning plan, Kasich has offered up a reckless one -- a 10-year phaseout of the state's income tax. And it will enable the governor to spend millions on an advertising message that his Republican opponent is an extremist who advocates policies that would destroy Ohio's schools and universities, while punishing its most vulnerable citizens -- especially children.

Ohio has never been a state to take big risks in electing governors. Three Republicans -- Jim Rhodes, George Voinovich and Bob Taft -- served as governor of Ohio in 32 of the 44 years from 1963 to 2007. All three were political moderates.

In 2006, Ken Blackwell became the most conservative Republican gubernatorial nominee in at least a half-century -- perhaps ever. And though Blackwell's landslide loss to Strickland can be attributed to many factors -- some beyond the candidate's control -- one of those factors was Blackwell's support for a constitutional amendment called the Tax and Expenditure Limitation, which would have dramatically limited state and local-government spending.

Republican moderates hated it, as did educators. With GOP business leaders poised to oppose the TEL, the Republican-run legislature allowed Blackwell to save face by passing a version so watered down that it meant essentially nothing.

Nevertheless, the TEL cemented Blackwell's reputation -- fairly or not -- as an extremist who advocated policies far from the mainstream. Of Cuyahoga County's 1,434 precincts, several hundred enjoy a Republican advantage. On Election Day 2006, Blackwell outpolled Strickland in three precincts.

Now comes front-runner Kasich with an income tax elimination plan even more draconian than Blackwell's TEL. To comprehend what Ohio would look like without an income tax, consider this:

In the present fiscal year, the state's income tax will raise a little more than $7 billion. Spending of state tax dollars in this year's budget will be $18.5 billion.

A breakdown of those $18.5 billion in tax expenditures looks like this: K-12 education, $7.3 billion; higher education, $2.2 billion; prisons, $1.7 billion; general government, $1.7 billion; local governments, $1.1 billion; and human services (seniors, children, health care, the mentally and physically challenged), $4.5 billion.

Now, try to take $7 billion from those six pots of money without causing irreparable harm.

Sure, the lack of an income tax would create jobs and generate other taxes for the state. But this isn't Florida, where tourism dollars allow the state to do without an income tax.

A year from now, either Strickland or Kasich will be challenged to submit a two-year budget that will include at least $6 billion less revenue than the existing budget. Balancing the next budget without a tax increase will be next to impossible. Balancing it while planning the elimination of the income tax would be insanity.

In 1999, Kasich mounted a bid for the GOP presidential nomination but abandoned the effort after five months. Many believe he sill harbors presidential ambitions. Indeed, a win in November would make the 57-year-old former House Budget Committee chair part of the conversation in 2012.

But that won't happen unless Kasich figures out that the sort of gibberish that sounds good on Fox News doesn't necessarily make for good public policy in the heartland.